基于多维尺度拉普拉斯分析方法的全球流感疫情监测

Xi-chuan ZHOU; Fang TANG; Qin LI; Sheng-dong HU; Guo-jun LI; Yun-jian JIA; Xin-ke LI; Yu-jie FENG

doi:10.1631/FITEE.1500356

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基于多维尺度拉普拉斯分析方法的全球流感疫情监测

常规文章 | Updated：2022-05-19

- 基于多维尺度拉普拉斯分析方法的全球流感疫情监测
- Global influenza surveillance with Laplacian multidimensional scaling
- 信息与电子工程前沿（英文） 2016年17卷第5期页码：413-421
- Affiliations：
  
  1College of Communications Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
  2MOE Key Laboratory of Dependable Service Computing in Cyber Physical Society, Chongqing 400044, China
  3Chongqing Engineering Laboratory of High Performance Integrated Circuits, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
  4Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of Chongqing, Chongqing 400042, China
  5Chongqing Communication Institute, Chongqing 400030, China
  6Third Military Medical University, Southwest Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China
- Author bio：
  
  E-mail: zxc@cqu.edu.cn
- Funds：
  
  Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61103212 and 61471073) and the Chinese Post-Doctoral Science Foundation (Nos. 2012M521678 and 2013T60836)
- DOI：10.1631/FITEE.1500356
  中图分类号： TP391.4
- 收稿：2015-10-16，
  
  录用：2016-2-17，
  
  纸质出版：2016-05
- Accepted：
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基于多维尺度拉普拉斯分析方法的全球流感疫情监测[J]. 信息与电子工程前沿（英文）, 2016,17(5):413-421.

Xi-chuan ZHOU, Fang TANG, Qin LI, et al. Global influenza surveillance with Laplacian multidimensional scaling[J]. Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering, 2016, 17(5): 413-421.
基于多维尺度拉普拉斯分析方法的全球流感疫情监测[J]. 信息与电子工程前沿（英文）, 2016,17(5):413-421. DOI： 10.1631/FITEE.1500356.

Xi-chuan ZHOU, Fang TANG, Qin LI, et al. Global influenza surveillance with Laplacian multidimensional scaling[J]. Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering, 2016, 17(5): 413-421. DOI： 10.1631/FITEE.1500356.

摘要

目的

实现全世界范围的流感疫情监测，重点是对部分WHO缺失数据的非洲国家地区的监测。

创新点

利用相同传染区传染病的传播具有相似性的特点，实现了对数据缺失的国家地区流感疫情数据的补足和预测，以及全世界范围的流感疫情监测。

方法

收集全世界范围内WHO历年来的监测数据，包括8种不同类型流感的每周感染人数。根据全世界范围内不同地区传染模式的多样性和相同地区传染模式的相似性建立模型。建立了传播相似性矩阵。根据同一传播区国家的相似性便可以得到数据缺失国家地区的流感疫情状态。

结论

针对不同流感传播区的国家地区建立了一个空间相关的流感疫情监测系统。该系统可以有效监测一些无WHO数据的非洲国家地区的疫情风险。

Abstract

The Global Influenza Surveillance Network is crucial for monitoring epidemic risk in participating countries. However

at present

the network has notable gaps in the developing world

principally in Africa and Asia where laboratory capabilities are limited. Moreover

for the last few years

various influenza viruses have been continuously emerging in the resource-limited countries

making these surveillance gaps a more imminent challenge. We present a spatial-transmission model to estimate epidemic risks in the countries where only partial or even no surveillance data are available. Motivated by the observation that countries in the same influenza transmission zone divided by the World Health Organization had similar transmission patterns

we propose to estimate the influenza epidemic risk of an unmonitored country by incorporating the surveillance data reported by countries of the same transmission zone. Experiments show that the risk estimates are highly correlated with the actual influenza morbidity trends for African and Asian countries. The proposed method may provide the much-needed capability to detect

assess

and notify potential influenza epidemics to the developing world.

关键词

Keywords

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