Ldformer：面向长期电力预测的并行神经网络模型

田冉; 李新梅; 马忠彧; 刘颜星; 王晶霞; 王楚

doi:10.1631/FITEE.2200540

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Ldformer：面向长期电力预测的并行神经网络模型

常规文章 | Updated：2023-09-21

- Ldformer：面向长期电力预测的并行神经网络模型
- LDformer: a parallel neural network model for long-term power forecasting
- 信息与电子工程前沿(英文版) 2023年24卷第9期页码：1287-1301
- Affiliations：
  
  College of Computer Science & Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
- Author bio：
  
  ‡Corresponding author
  2020211978@nwnu.edu.cn
  mazybg@nwnu.edu.cn
  lyanxing@nwnu.edu.cn
  2020222004@nwnu.edu.cn
  2020221992@nwnu.edu.cn
- Funds：
  
  the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71961028);the Key Research and Development Program of Gansu Province, China(22YF7GA171);the University Industry Support Program of Gansu Province, China(2023QB-115);the Innovation Fund for Science and Technology-based Small and Medium Enterprises of Gansu Province, China(23CXGA0136);the Scientific Research Project of the Lanzhou Science and Technology Program, China(2018-01-58)
- DOI：10.1631/FITEE.2200540
  中图分类号： TP183
- 收稿：2022-11-03，
  
  修回：2023-02-13，
  
  录用：2023-02-13，
  
  纸质出版：2023-09-0
- Accepted：
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田冉, 李新梅, 马忠彧, 等. Ldformer：面向长期电力预测的并行神经网络模型[J]. 信息与电子工程前沿(英文版), 2023,24(9):1287-1301.

Ran TIAN, Xinmei LI, Zhongyu MA, et al. LDformer: a parallel neural network model for long-term power forecasting[J]. Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering, 2023, 24(9): 1287-1301.
田冉, 李新梅, 马忠彧, 等. Ldformer：面向长期电力预测的并行神经网络模型[J]. 信息与电子工程前沿(英文版), 2023,24(9):1287-1301. DOI： 10.1631/FITEE.2200540.

Ran TIAN, Xinmei LI, Zhongyu MA, et al. LDformer: a parallel neural network model for long-term power forecasting[J]. Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering, 2023, 24(9): 1287-1301. DOI： 10.1631/FITEE.2200540.

摘要

准确的长期电力预测对电网决策运行和用户用电管理非常重要，可保证电力系统的可靠供电和电网经济的可靠运行。然而，大多数时间序列预测模型在数据量大、预测精度高的长时间序列预测任务中表现不佳。为了应对这一挑战，提出名为LDformer的并行时间序列预测模型。首先，将Informer与长短期记忆网络相结合，以获得时间序列的深度表达能力。其次，提出并行编码器模块提高模型鲁棒性，并将卷积层与注意力机制相结合，以避免注意力机制中的值冗余。最后，提出结合UniDrop的概率稀疏注意力机制，以减少计算开销并减轻序列中一些关键连接丢失的风险。在5个真实数据集上的实验结果显示，在不同的长时间序列预测任务中，LDformer大部分结果都优于最先进的基线结果。

Abstract

Accurate long-term power forecasting is important in the decision-making operation of the power grid and power consumption management of customers to ensure the power system’s reliable power supply and the grid economy’s reliable operation. However

most time-series forecasting models do not perform well in dealing with long-time-series prediction tasks with a large amount of data. To address this challenge

we propose a parallel time-series prediction model called LDformer. First

we combine Informer with long short-term memory (LSTM) to obtain deep representation abilities in the time series. Then

we propose a parallel encoder module to improve the robustness of the model and combine convolutional layers with an attention mechanism to avoid value redundancy in the attention mechanism. Finally

we propose a probabilistic sparse (ProbSparse) self-attention mechanism combined with UniDrop to reduce the computational overhead and mitigate the risk of losing some key connections in the sequence. Experimental results on five datasets show that LDformer outperforms the state-of-the-art methods for most of the cases when handling the different long-time-series prediction tasks.

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